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Will "Crusoe" Make it to a Fifth Episode?
68.1% probability

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THE MARKET: Will “Crusoe” on NBC make it to a fifth episode? The drama will have its two-hour premiere on Friday, October 17 at 8 p.m. ET. Trading will close immediately after a third episode is aired. If a fifth episode airs, shares are worth $100. If it doesn’t, they’re worth $0.

THE DATA: “Crusoe” is described by NBC as an “ambitious adaptation of Daniel Defoe’s masterpiece.” Philip Winchester (“The Patriot,” “Flyboys”) plays Robinson Crusoe.

OUR TAKE: A Friday 8:00 p.m. slot is never promising, especially for a showpiece drama like“Crusoe.” Making matters worse, ABC moved “Wife Swap” into the same spot, alongside “Ghost Whisperer,” “Everybody Hates Chris,” and “Are You Smarter than a 5th Grader?”. “Crusoe” may extend its life via cut-rate production costs. But look for the plank to be decidedly short if the two-hour premiere tanks.

LEARN MORE:
See the “Crusoe” home page.

TIP:
Current value = probability prediction will occur, e.g. $10 = 10% chance prediction will occur.

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