At Media Predict, we run markets that try to predict what might happen in the future. So don't think as a consumer, think as a predictor. It's not merely about whether you personally like a given product - but also whether you can envision it being successful in the market today. Bear in mind a couple things about the publishing industry:

• To get a book deal today, an author usually needs to be represented by a professional literary agent. Note that all Media Predict book proposals will have access to professional literary representation.
• Most book publishing decisions in the United States are made by a body of people, most of them literary agents and editors. When you try to predict whether a proposal will get a book deal, do not consider the writing in isolation, but also consider whether that writing will appeal to members of this decision-making community.
• All this said, bear in mind that thousands of books are published every year. If a book proposal is good, then there's a real chance it will reach publication one way or another.

Media Predict generally runs markets for a total of four months to determine the probability that a book proposal will secure a book deal. In some cases, Media Predict may withdraw low-scoring proposals from consideration before this period has fully elapsed.

Note that all undiscovered media content that appears on Media Predict is seen to have a legitimate chance - at least 1 in 10 - of being produced and disseminated to the public for widespread consumption. Reasons for posting an undiscovered media product are listed in "The Buzz" in the market description.

Simon & Schuster Contest

Media Predict has an ongoing contest in which Simon & Schuster will pick up at least one Media Predict book by November 2007. See the Project Publish home page.

Note that according to the contest rules, Simon & Schuster editors will independently choose finalists and a winner in the contest. These might be the highest scoring works in Media Predict, or they might not. In the end Simon & Schuster will make up their own minds. It's your job to predict what that decision will be.

Book publishers vary greatly in size and form. For purposes of judging outcomes in our markets, Media Predict will define a "publishing deal" (or "book deal") according to the following criteria:

1. publishing deals must involve significant expenditure, often in the form of an advance, by a formally established book publisher;
2. publishing deals cannot involve the self-financing or self-publishing of books via traditional vanity presses or online self-publishing organizations;
3. publishing deals must produce paper books produced and disseminated to the public via brick-and-mortar outlets over a significant geographic distribution.

For purposes of judging markets, Media Predict reserves discretion to determine whether a publishing transaction meets the above criteria.

At present Media Predict will not consider authors whose books are solely and exclusively distributed by online publishing methods, such as e-books, to have obtained a publishing deal. Similarly Media Predict will not consider authors whose books are solely and exclusively distributed by on-demand publishing methods, via retail outlets or kiosks, to have obtained a publishing deal. Media Predict will review these policies on a monthly basis.

At Media Predict, we run markets that try to predict what might happen in the future. So don't think as a consumer, think as a predictor. It's not merely about whether you personally like a given product - but also whether you can envision it being successful in the market today. Bear in mind a couple things about how the music industry works:

• Music companies have a vast array of strategies for choosing bands. Musical acts with loyal followings can sometimes work for years without getting a record deal. Conversely, a major record company may at times select unknown artists, market them effectively, and turn them into a major act.
• Given such variability, additional information is crucial in making your investment decisions. After you listen to the music itself, investigate social networking pages (such as at Pure Volume or MySpace), pay attention to public appearances the band is making - even keep an eye out for rumors as to whether a record contract may be in the works. These things will greatly help you make your investment decisions.
• All this said, Media Predict only posts unsigned musical acts that are already attracting significant attention. They might be in the top unsigned bands at MySpace. Or people from within the industry might request a market to learn more about a given band's potential. If they're on Media Predict, they're already close. It's your job to predict whether they'll go all the way.

Note that all undiscovered media content that appears on Media Predict is seen by our staff to have a legitimate chance - at least 1 in 10 - of being produced and disseminated to the public for widespread consumption. Reasons for posting an undiscovered media product are listed in "The Buzz" in the market description.

Media Predict will define a major label as a record label with more than 50.1 percent ownership by Universal Music Group, Sony BMG Music Entertainment, EMI Group, or Warner Music Group, or a record label with over 50.1 percent ownership by a subsidiary of one of these companies.

Independent labels vary greatly in size and form. For purposes of judging outcomes in our markets, Media Predict will define independent labels (or "indie" labels) as

1. formally established record companies founded for the purposes of financing the recording, marketing, and promotion of a significant number of musical artists;
2. companies that do not own their own channels for the distribution of printed CDs, but access existing channels for the distribution of printed CDs;
3. companies that have achieved, or promise to achieve, significant distribution of printed CDs to online or brick-and-mortar retail outlets.

For purposes of judging markets, Media Predict reserves discretion to determine whether a given label meets the above criteria. Moreover, while Media Predict will allow for flexible financial arrangements between independent artists and labels, Media Predict reserves discretion to determine whether a transaction or contract is or is not of adequately significant size or scope to be considered an independent record deal.

At present Media Predict will not consider as independent labels companies not involved in the production and distribution of printed CDs, but rather involved solely in online distribution of music. Media Predict will review this policy on a monthly basis.

At Media Predict, we run markets that try to predict what might happen in the future. So don't think as a consumer, think as a predictor. It's not merely about whether you personally like a given product - but also whether you can envision it being successful in the market today.

Many Media Predict television markets try to predict the performance of a television pilot. Media Predict will measure the success of these pilots by Nielsen Ratings as reported in industry standard publications.

Television networks generally produce more pilots than ever see the light of day. Media Predict ultimately hopes that networks will let the power of markets decide which shows make it on the air. That way, networks will put out more hits and fewer duds - which means better television for everyone. If you work in television, contact us to find out more.