Media Predict Blog

For the first time, the market swings to the Democrats June 23, 2015

For the first time, Democrats have pulled ahead of Republicans in our 2016 Presidential Election market.

Prediction markets are well-documented as a better long-range indicator than polls. So in January we figured we'd get ahead of the 2016 election with some early results. Thus far it's been a bumpy ride for the incumbents, with Republicans at time showing a probability of 60%, and Democrats' chances sagging in the 40% range over the past five months.

That changed this week, with the Democrats pulling even over the weekend and nosing ahead for the first time. Traders favored Democrats by a ratio of 1.2:1 last Friday. Here is trading over the past 24 hours.

All major demographics bet more heavily on Democrats than Republicans in the past five days -- but young people showed the most conviction, with men 18-34 and women 18-34 betting Democratic by huge ratios of 3.5:1 and 2.5:1. However those who say they are undecided voters are still betting Republican, 1.6:1.

A small number of traders saw a perception problem in relation to recent events in South Carolina ("Republicans are too far to the right to appeal to the majority of people"). However far more traders cited the strength of Hilary Clinton's early campaign ("so far no one of the others could beat Clinton").

Stay tuned for more!